By Roger Weber
The following table shows the number of runs that on average are
scored in the inning after each of these events. The first column shows outs, the second shows possibilities for what runners
are on base, and the next shows the result of each type of event in that situation. For example, a failed steal attempt by
the runner on first base with runners on first and third and no outs causes a team's expected run total in that inning to
decrease by almost a whole run. If he is successful, though, he slightly increases his team's number of expected runs.
The data are from 19992002 and are borrowed from Tom Tango's
book, "Playing the Percentages in Baseball."
Outs 
runners 
After each event 




no 
SB 
CS 


att. 


0 out 





1 
0.953 
1.189 
0.297 

2 
1.189 
1.482 
0.297 

1 and 2 
1.573 
1.904 
0.573 

1 and 3 
1.904 
2.052 
0.983 





1 out 





1 
0.573 
0.725 
0.117 

2 
0.725 
0.983 
0.117 

1 and 2 
0.971 
1.243 
0.251 

1 and 3 
1.243 
1.467 
0.387 





2 out 





1 
0.251 
0.344 
0 

2 
0.344 
0.387 
0 

1 and 2 
0.466 
0.538 
0 

1 and 3 
0.538 
0.634 
0 