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Baseball Judgments

Baseball Judgments | SportsLibrary.net
Stolen base effects and run expectancies

 

By Roger Weber

 

The following table shows the number of runs that on average are scored in the inning after each of these events. The first column shows outs, the second shows possibilities for what runners are on base, and the next shows the result of each type of event in that situation. For example, a failed steal attempt by the runner on first base with runners on first and third and no outs causes a team's expected run total in that inning to decrease by almost a whole run. If he is successful, though, he slightly increases his team's number of expected runs.

 

The data are from 1999-2002 and are borrowed from Tom Tango's book, "Playing the Percentages in Baseball."

 

Outs

runners

After each event

 

 

 

 

no

SB

CS

 

 

att.

 

 

0 out

 

 

 

 

 

1

0.953

1.189

0.297

 

2

1.189

1.482

0.297

 

1 and 2

1.573

1.904

0.573

 

1 and 3

1.904

2.052

0.983

 

 

 

 

 

1 out

 

 

 

 

 

1

0.573

0.725

0.117

 

2

0.725

0.983

0.117

 

1 and 2

0.971

1.243

0.251

 

1 and 3

1.243

1.467

0.387

 

 

 

 

 

2 out

 

 

 

 

 

1

0.251

0.344

0

 

2

0.344

0.387

0

 

1 and 2

0.466

0.538

0

 

1 and 3

0.538

0.634

0

 

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